SHARE THIS In the days immediately following 9-11, markets understandably fretted that consumer spending would collapse as people would be too scared to go out. In fact, spending picked up – even the author’s usually frugal spending increased.
SHARE THIS This month we look beyond Japan’s impressive dividends and share buybacks from the perspective of corporate governance reform; we also explain how the “quantity effect” associated with exports may reduce the relevance of currency levels.
SHARE THIS In the 2024 Indian parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP won fewer seats than expected. However, with support from pre-alliance partners, Prime Minister Modi will lead a coalition government for a third term, indicating...
SHARE THIS New Zealand’s equity market is currently facing challenging times. However, a sense that the country’s interest rates may have peaked are some of the indications that the market’s outlook may brighten.
SHARE THIS New Zealand's fixed income market has struggled so far in 2024 and inflation has remained high. However, there is growing confidence that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lower the Official Cash Rate in the next six to 18 months due to a...
SHARE THIS The Bank of Japan maintained interest rates at its June meeting, disappointing market participants who expected a reduction in monthly bond purchases. The BOJ signalled a future reduction in bond purchases but only at the next policy meeting...
SHARE THIS We have shifted to a mildly positive stance on overall duration, preferring high-yield markets such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines. We expect Asia credit to remain well-supported due to subdued net new supply as issuers continue to...
SHARE THIS The early economic cycle dynamics and cheap valuations in Asia contrast starkly with the expensive late cycle dynamics in the West, and we expect this to provide good diversification options for global investors.
SHARE THIS Markets have continued their strong growth through 2024, as odds continue to grow that central banks are able to walk the tight rope and avoid any real slowdown of global growth. US inflation has remained above expectations. However, some...
SHARE THIS Our central scenario is for positive GDP growth in most major economies, with mild upside risks to growth in all regions but Europe. Within this central scenario, we anticipate range-bound inflation with a gradual disinflationary trend in...
SHARE THIS Recently, China has been frequently appearing in global headlines, although many of these stories are not particularly encouraging. Amidst a fixation with the slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy, global markets may be missing the...
SHARE THIS Asian small caps, ranging from “indie” cosmetics brands to bicycle manufacturers, present a chance to get involved with the future economic powerhouses of the world. The strategic positioning, high growth potential, adaptability, and...
SHARE THIS This month we focus on the surge in long-term JGB yields and whether it poses a threat to equities; we also discuss the potential upside for Japan’s small- and mid-cap stocks.
SHARE THIS Given the current weakness in New Zealand’s economy, the key question regarding interest rates is not so much the direction they will take but when they are likely to be cut. The struggles seen in the economy span from GDP to employment and...
SHARE THIS A look back at the past six months reveals the extent to which New Zealand’s equity market has missed out on the strength seen in many other global markets. Amid these struggles, however, the New Zealand market’s sensitivity to interest...
SHARE THIS We favour South Korean, Indian and Philippine government bonds and have adopted a neutral stance on Indonesian bonds. Meanwhile, the fundamentals backdrop for Asian credit remains supportive.
SHARE THIS In China, we await confirmation of real, positive fundamental change before increasing our confidence towards the country, and we maintain a highly selective approach. Elsewhere, a combination of AI-induced excitement and positive structural...
SHARE THIS Japan, a nation of “cash-rich” companies, is undergoing corporate reforms aimed at raising valuation of companies by improving their capital efficiency. The reforms, along with cash-rich companies' historical outperformance and strategic...
SHARE THIS We retained both our overweight to growth assets and our neutral position on defensives. The outlook for growth remains positive as global central banks have started monetary easing, with Europe and Canada leading the way by cutting their...
SHARE THIS Although market volatility resurfaced in the early part of the April-June quarter as interest rate cuts in the US began to look less likely amid higher-than-expected inflation, risk assets bounced back and rallied strongly later in the...